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William Dudley, President Federal Reserve Bank of New York
William Dudley, President Federal Reserve Bank of New York
James Sanders, Jr, Council Member Chair, Civil Services and Labor
Full video coverage and follow up Q&A are available in the left column in 4 segments of approximately three to five minutes each.
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Long Island City, New York March 11, 2011 -
The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, addressed a gathering of business leaders brought together by the Queens Chamber of Commerce and Queens Economic Development Corporation ( QEDC ). His comments covered current monetary policy and problems in the economy, new tools for protecting the country against inflation, and his reflections on Queens.
Dudley stated that his comments today are a reflection of his own thinking, and not a representation of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee.
He started by describing the role of the Fed and why his job is so interesting.
Dudley explained that the Federal Reserve is part of the Federal Reserve System, Americas Central Bank established by Congress in 1913. Withthat Act, congress delegated its responsibility to manage the supply of money in the nation's economy to the Federal Reserve. Congressed designed the system to be decentralized and independent of the political process. There is a central Board of Governors which is an agency of the US Government in Washington DC plus twelve Federal Reserve Banks regionally. Each Regional bank is distinct with its own charter and Board of Directors.
Congress set a specific objective for monetary policy. The Fed's mandate is to "Pursue the highlest level of employment consist with price stability". Financial stability is essential to this mandate.
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee [ FMOC ] meets in Washington eight times a year to deliberate and vote on monetary policy. The next meeting is the week of March 14, 2011. Dudley is Vice Chair of FMOC.
Dudley discussed the outlook for economic activity and inflation, and areas of vulnerability.
- "The outlook has improved considerably over the past 6 months"
- We are still far away from achieving mandate of full employment and price stability.
- A wide range of indicators show a broadening and steengthening of demand by housholds and production by firms. Family's boosted their consumption in Q4 2010 at a 4.1% rate, nearly double the rate in Q1-Q3 2010. As demand is picking up, business orders and production are following.
- Business and consumer confidence is improving
Dudley identified three characteristics in the current economy that indicate that we are near a period of growth. He called this revival of deman and confidence a "Virtuous Circle" that would support stronger growth.
"Virtuous Circle" = Rising houshold and business demand, generating higher employment growth and income, which in turn bolsters confidence, which leads to further increases in spending.
He noted that the missing element is that we have not seen strong employment growth yet. "We need to see strong employment growth in order to be certain that this Virtuous Circle has been established".
During the past few months, unemployment rate dropped sharply from 9.8% to 8.9%. This is one of the sharpest drops seen by the Fed. However, we have not seen strong employment rate growth yet.
"During the past year, we have added factory jobs at the fastest rate simce the 1990's" Dudley said.
January's weakness in job growth is partially attributable to very poor weather. Dudley told the group that he feels "job growth will increase considerably more rapidly in the coming months".
However, Dudley pointed out that even if the economy were to generate 300,000 jobs each month, we would still considerable slack in the market through 2012.
Reasons why Dudley feels the economy is showing signs of improvement:
- Households (rise in the savings rate) and financial institutions (balance sheet) continue to improve because debt has been reduced.
- Monetary Policy (lower interest rates) and Fiscal Policy (stimulous packages and tax reduction policy) have combined to provided a foundation for recovery and are working properly together.
- Growth abroad is increasing demand for US product and services. Growth in Real Exports in Q4 2010 rose at the annual rate of over 9.0&
He emphasized that demand was increasing and that we are entering a cycle where demand would feed confidence and growth would be the result.
Dudley was pressed during the Question and Answer segment on inflation issues at the retail store, and for his help in loosing the tight credit being applied by banks to small business.
OTHER HIGHLIGHTS:
- William Dudley was named as President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 2009. He is also Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee [ FMOC ] , which makes up the country's monetary policy. Also serves as Executive Vice President where he managed a system open market account for the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee.
- Dudley was previously a Founder and Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, and joined the firm in 1986. He was Goldman Sachs Chief US Economis for over 10 years. Prior to joining, he was VP at Morgan Guaranty. He was an Economist at the Federal Reserve from 1981 - 1983.
- Two students from laGuardia Community College were recognized for taking both first and second place in the New York Federal Reserve's contest for Financial Literacy Among Young Adults.
- Dudley noted that the center of population in NYC is Maspeth Queens, and called attention to Queens extraordinarily diverse population composition. He called Queens a "Land of opportunity for immigrants from all over the world".
- Queens is at the Cosmopolitan Center of the World today. By the Fed's calculation, 46% of Queens population is foreign born. This is higher than any other county in the US with exception of Miami's Dade County.
- Housing activity remains unusally weak.
- Higher oil prices cut into household purchasing power.
- Low interest rates can cause short term bubbles.
- Dudley says that Core inflation is stabalizing. Core inflation is inflation excluding "food" and "energy". The Fed says that Core Inflation is more predictive.
- Mounting prices in food and energy are growing rapidly. Commodity price pressures is high and could become persistent. Spot GSCI raised 35% over the past year.
- A change in general "inflation expectations" could complicate the mandate of the Fed
- While the national economic outlook improved in the later part of 2010 and into this year, growth in New York City's economy appears to have slowed a bit.
- A composit economic index for NYC showed decline in 2008 and 2009, but had been recovering at an encouraging pace in the first part of 2010.
- Growth in NYC slowed in the Q3 and Q4 of 2010, but there seems to be a pick up in employment data in 2011. The data suggests that the recovery is on track.
- Employment in NYC is expanding fairly strongly in several key areas: Finance, Professional and Business services, Education and health, and Tourism.
- Job losses in construction and government continue to weigh down employment growth.
- Unemployment rate in the City is unacceptably high at 8.9%. Much of the drop in unemployment is because people are withdrawing from the labor market.
- Queens has an industrial base of its own. The volume of people traveling through JFK and LaGuaria airports ranks 3rd highest in the US. The Queens Transportation Industry accounts for 12% total employment.
- Air Transportation alone accounts for 6% of jobs in Queens.
- Queens has a diverse economy with jobs in medical care, construction, printing, and other industries.
- Queens economy has been more resilient than other areas of NYC. From "peak to trough" during the recent economic problem, the Queens unemployment rate dropped by 3% in Queens, far less than the 7% drop at the national level, and less than the 4.5% drop in level in NYC as a whole.
- Employment in Queens stopped declining during Q1 and Q2 of 2010.
Twenty five persent of the world's gold bullion, 500,000 tons, lies in chambers 80 feet below the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This is an article in progress. Watch OurLIC for more HIGHLIGHTS .
OurLIC attended the meeting and is making a full video of the session, along with lively Q&A available with this article.
William Dudley, President Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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William Dudley, President Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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James Sanders, Jr, Council Member Chair, Civil Services and Labor
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William Dudley, President Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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(L) Carol Conslato, President, Queens Chamber of Commerce (R) William Dudley, President Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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Jack Friedman, Executive Director, Queens Chamber of Commerce
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(L) John Vogt, White Castle and President of Sunnyside Business Improvement District (R) Nathaniel Hezekiah, III,Community Liason for Congressman Gregory Meeks
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Seth Bornstein, Executive Director, Queens Economic Development Corporation
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(R) Nathaniel Hezekiah, III,Community Liason for Congressman Gregory Meeks
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Seth Bornstein, Executive Director, Queens Economic Development Corporation
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(L) Seth Bornstein, Executive Director, Queens Economic Development Corporation
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(L) James Sanders, Jr, Council Member Chair, Civil Services and Labor (C) David Weprin, NY State Assembly Member (R) jack Friedman, Executive Director, Queens Chamber of Commerce
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Twenty five persent of the world's gold bullion, 500,000 tons, lies in chambers 80 feet below the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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